India is entering another wet stretch as the southwest monsoon stays active across the Himalayan belt, central India, the east and parts of the northeast. The India Meteorological Department’s August 11 morning forecast keeps widespread rain over Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand through August 16, while several states face shorter bursts of heavy or very heavy rainfall.
The timing could affect travel before the Independence Day weekend. Hill routes need closer attention because repeated rain has left catchments saturated. In its latest All India Weather Forecast Bulletin, IMD is also tracking a cyclonic circulation over the northwest Bay of Bengal, with a low-pressure area likely around August 12. That system could lift rainfall across eastern India.
Where Will Heavy Rain Hit From August 11 To 16?
The rain map changes by the day rather than placing the whole country under one alert. IMD’s outlook points to the Western Himalayan Region first, followed by a wetter eastern spell. The department’s August 10 daily weather briefing on X also flagged heavy to very heavy rain over the Western Himalayan Region during the week.
Key areas to watch are:
- Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand: Widespread rainfall is likely through August 16. Himachal Pradesh faces a very heavy rain threat on August 11.
- Jammu and Kashmir: Isolated heavy rainfall is forecast through August 16, raising concern for vulnerable mountain roads.
- Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh: East Rajasthan faces very heavy rain on August 11. Parts of western Madhya Pradesh remain vulnerable after extremely heavy rainfall on August 10.
- Odisha, West Bengal, Jharkhand and Bihar: Rain should increase as the Bay system develops. Odisha could see isolated very heavy rain from August 12 to 15.
- Northeast India: Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura stay in the active monsoon belt, with heavier spells later this week.
Delhi, Haryana and Punjab may also see intermittent rain, though the strongest multi-day signal is farther north and east.
Why Is The Flash-Flood Risk Higher In The Hills?
Flash flooding can develop quickly when heavy rain falls over steep ground that is already wet. IMD’s National Flash Flood Guidance Bulletin, issued on August 11, identified low to moderate risk across selected watersheds in Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand. It also showed lower risk in parts of East Rajasthan and West Madhya Pradesh.
For the 24 hours ending early August 12, the bulletin listed Doda, Kathua and Udhampur in Jammu and Kashmir; Himachal districts including Kangra, Chamba, Mandi, Kullu, Shimla and Sirmaur; and Uttarakhand districts including Dehradun, Chamoli, Nainital, Pithoragarh, Rudraprayag and Uttarkashi.
IMD said rainfall had reached up to 133 mm in 24 hours over some monitored watersheds. Its models indicated very heavy rain of up to 120 mm during the following 24 hours. With wet slopes and low-lying ground already exposed, runoff, local inundation and landslides become more likely.
Odisha And The Northeast Could Turn Wetter After August 12
The Bay of Bengal is the next feature to watch. IMD’s marine weather bulletin says the upper-air cyclonic circulation over the northwest Bay of Bengal could produce a low-pressure area around August 12. Once organised, it can feed more moisture into Odisha and adjoining states.
Odisha therefore stands out in the midweek forecast, with isolated very heavy rainfall likely from August 12 to 15. Gangetic West Bengal, Jharkhand and Bihar also enter a wetter phase, while Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim may receive heavy spells on several days.
The northeast remains vulnerable after weeks of flooding. Assam has already faced serious flood disruption this season, and another run of heavy rain across Assam and Meghalaya around August 15 and 16 could slow drainage in waterlogged areas. Travellers heading to hill districts should check same-day warnings before leaving.
What Should Travellers And Residents Watch Before August 16?
The biggest disruption may come from intense bursts rather than day-long rain. A strong downpour can block a hill road, trigger debris flow or flood an underpass while nearby places receive much less rain. Forecast confidence reduces farther into the week, so district alerts should take priority over saved forecasts. IMD itself notes that forecast accuracy decreases as the lead period increases.
Before long drives, check road status and local administration advisories. Avoid riverbanks, seasonal streams and low crossings during heavy rain. In hill areas, postpone travel when landslides or falling rocks are reported. City commuters should allow extra time on routes known for waterlogging.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which states face the highest rain risk between August 11 and 16?
Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Odisha, Rajasthan, Jammu and Kashmir, plus northeastern states face notable heavy rainfall.
Where has IMD flagged flash-flood risk on August 11?
IMD flags selected watersheds in Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh.
When could Odisha receive the heaviest rainfall?
IMD expects isolated very heavy rainfall over Odisha mainly between August 12 and August 15.
Will Delhi receive rain during this monsoon spell?
Delhi may receive intermittent rain, while stronger spells remain focused over Himalayan and eastern regions.
Why should hill travellers check forecasts repeatedly?
Saturated slopes can fail quickly, causing landslides, flash floods, debris flows and sudden road closures.
Stay ahead with more monsoon updates and weather alerts.
Where Will India’s Monsoon Hit Next?
Check out the latest weather developments shaping rainfall across India.
