India’s 2026 monsoon is producing two different pictures at once. Some regions are seeing intense rain and waterlogging, while hundreds of districts have slipped into significant short-term rainfall stress. The latest IMD SPI comparison reported by The Times of India shows 218 districts in moderate, severe or extreme dry categories during the four weeks from August 13 to September 9.
That is more than one-fourth of India’s districts and 30 more than during a comparable period in 2023, the previous strong El Niño year. Yet the wet side has expanded too. The number of districts in moderate, severe or extreme wet categories has risen to 86, against 58 in 2023. The pattern points towards a monsoon becoming more uneven across regions.
What The 218 District Figure Actually Shows
The 218 figure comes from IMD’s Standardized Precipitation Index, or SPI, which compares rainfall during a chosen period with historical rainfall expected for that period. Here, it captures the latest four-week pattern rather than the whole monsoon season. IMD also maintains its district rainfall monitoring system for recent district-level rainfall conditions.
Dryness is visible across parts of Marathwada and Vidarbha in Maharashtra, along with districts in Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh, Rajasthan and Meghalaya and pockets of Punjab and Haryana. Moderately dry districts increased from 97 in the comparable 2023 period to 120 in 2026, while severely dry districts rose from 50 to 65.
That does not mean all 218 districts have been officially declared drought-hit. State drought declarations use wider indicators, including crop conditions and water availability.
What The SPI Actually Measures
SPI can flag emerging rainfall stress quickly. But it does not directly measure groundwater, reservoir storage, soil moisture or crop damage. A district may appear dry on the four-week SPI even when earlier rain helped reservoirs, while another may face deeper farm stress after repeated dry spells.
Why El Niño Is Widening The Monsoon Divide
El Niño is an important part of the 2026 story. NOAA’s September 10 ENSO update says it is strengthening, with the Niño-3.4 index reaching +1.8°C in August and a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter.
India had already entered the season with a warning signal. The IMD’s updated monsoon forecast released through PIB projected June-September rainfall at 90% of the long-period average and placed an 84% probability on below-normal or deficient seasonal rainfall.
Still, El Niño does not make every district dry. India’s monsoon also responds to low-pressure systems, the monsoon trough, intraseasonal breaks, the Indian Ocean Dipole and geography. The National Remote Sensing Centre’s ENSO-IOD assessment says the Indian Ocean Dipole has been moving towards a positive phase, which may offset some El Niño pressure.
Heavy Rain Elsewhere Does Not Cancel Drought Stress
This week shows the contrast clearly. IMD warned of heavy to very heavy rain over Odisha and Chhattisgarh, while Delhi received a red alert during a fresh rain spell. An official IMD post on X on September 11 warned of moderate to heavy rain and thunderstorms across much of Delhi.
Meanwhile, Reuters reported on India’s weak monsoon rainfall: June rainfall was 35% below normal, August was also below average, and dry spells affected crops including cotton, soybean, maize and rice.
The current picture stands out for four reasons:
- 218 districts are in moderate to extreme dry SPI categories.
- 86 districts are simultaneously in moderate to extreme wet categories.
- Moderate and severe dryness has increased compared with 2023.
- Heavy downpours can lift local totals without repairing long dry spells for farms.
For agriculture, timing is critical. Rain arriving after flowering, pod formation or grain filling may not fully reverse damage caused by earlier moisture stress.
What Could Happen Through The Rest Of September?
The final weeks of the southwest monsoon will be closely watched. More low-pressure systems could bring useful rain to central and western India, but intense spells may also increase flood risk without evenly replenishing dry areas.
If rainfall stress persists, it could affect kharif yields, reservoir inflows, soil moisture for rabi sowing and food prices. September rain is especially important because wheat, rapeseed and chickpea planting begins as the monsoon starts withdrawing.
The 2026 monsoon cannot be described simply as dry or wet. El Niño is tilting background conditions towards weaker rainfall, while regional systems are creating sharp wet pockets. That leaves drought-like stress and heavy-rain alerts appearing at the same time.
FAQs
Are 218 Indian Districts Officially Under Drought?
No, the figure reflects recent meteorological dryness, not formal drought declarations issued by state governments.
Which Regions Are Showing Notable Dryness?
Parts of Maharashtra, Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh, Rajasthan, Meghalaya, Punjab and Haryana show recent rainfall stress.
Is El Niño Solely Responsible For The Rainfall Divide?
No, El Niño influences monsoon behaviour, while local systems, breaks and Indian Ocean conditions contribute.
Why Can Heavy Rain Coexist With Drought-Like Conditions?
Rain can be intense but localised, leaving districts dry after long rainless periods elsewhere nearby.
Could September Rainfall Still Improve The Situation?
Yes, well-distributed September rain can support crops and soil moisture, though earlier deficits may persist.
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