India has been listed among countries facing high or very high El Niño-related health risks in the World Health Organization’s September 5, 2026 assessment. For South Asia, WHO expects drier-than-normal conditions and above-normal heat across much of the region during August to October, while dengue is specifically flagged as a high or very high country-level risk for India.
The warning does not mean El Niño directly causes dengue, malaria or other infections. WHO calls it a risk modifier: altered heat, rainfall, water storage, food supply and health-service disruption can create conditions that raise disease risks. The timing is notable because Delhi recorded its highest monthly dengue tally of 2026 in August.
Key Highlights
- WHO lists India among South-East Asian countries facing high or very high El Niño-related health risks.
- Dengue, leptospirosis and malaria in parts of northeast India appear among the country-specific concerns.
- Delhi reported 90 dengue cases in August, taking the 2026 tally to 311 by August 29.
- WMO says El Niño has a near-100% chance of persisting through February 2027.
- India’s NCDC had already issued an El Niño 2026 health advisory in July.
Why Has WHO Flagged India As El Niño Health Risk Rises?
The WHO Global Public Health Situation Analysis says most of South Asia is expected to see hotter and drier conditions during August to October 2026. India appears in the regional group where health risks are assessed as high or very high. Heat stress, food insecurity and worsening non-communicable diseases are among the concerns common across several countries.
For India specifically, WHO lists dengue and leptospirosis among high or very high risks, while malaria is highlighted for parts of northeast India. The report also points to communicable disease risks where displacement or reduced healthcare access occurs, including along the India-Nepal and India-Bhutan borders.
The climate signal is also strengthening. The WMO September 3 El Niño update says El Niño is firmly established, should intensify further, and has a nearly 100% likelihood of continuing through February 2027. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole may alter how the usual El Niño pattern affects India.
Could Hotter, Drier Weather Actually Increase Dengue Risk?
Yes, but the pathway is more complicated than “less rain equals fewer mosquitoes.” WHO notes that drought and water shortages can push households to store water in containers, creating breeding sites for Aedes mosquitoes. Drying rivers or ponds can leave isolated pools, while warmer temperatures may increase transmission potential when conditions remain suitable.
The report cites evidence linking strong El Niño events with higher dengue outbreak risk globally, while stressing that effects vary by location. Sanitation, immunity, vector control, healthcare access and short bursts of rainfall can all change the outcome.
Delhi shows why surveillance is receiving attention. MCD figures reported on September 2 showed 90 dengue cases in August, more than double July’s 40, taking the total to 311 by August 29. Delhi also recorded 119 malaria cases and 22 chikungunya cases, with no deaths from the three diseases at that point. Those figures show rising infections, not proof that El Niño caused them.
What Other Health Problems Could Become Harder To Control?
Heat may be the most immediate nationwide concern. WHO says higher temperatures can increase heat exhaustion and heatstroke while worsening cardiovascular, respiratory, kidney and metabolic illness. Pregnant women, older adults, children, outdoor workers and people with chronic disease may face greater exposure during long hot spells.
Drier conditions can also affect drinking water, food production and nutrition. Water scarcity may encourage unsafe storage and poorer hygiene, increasing waterborne disease risk. Sudden heavy rain after dry periods can also flood drains, contaminate water and increase leptospirosis risk.
WHO additionally names Japanese encephalitis, Chandipura virus disease, Kyasanur Forest Disease and scrub typhus as climate-sensitive infections that may need closer attention in specific areas. India’s National Centre for Disease Control El Niño 2026 guidance had already published an advisory and guidance for states and Union Territories in July.
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What Should India Watch Next As El Niño Strengthens?
The next few months will depend on local weather rather than one national forecast. Health departments will need to track temperature, rainfall, mosquito breeding, hospital admissions and outbreaks together. Early action is especially important in districts with repeated dengue or malaria transmission, water shortages, dense settlements or weaker healthcare access.
WMO’s latest outlook suggests the climate driver could remain influential into early 2027. That makes vector control, safe water storage, heat alerts, rapid testing and uninterrupted treatment supplies more important than waiting for case numbers to climb.
FAQs
Can El Niño Directly Cause Dengue In India?
No. It changes weather conditions that can increase mosquito breeding and dengue transmission opportunities locally.
Why Can Drought Still Increase Mosquito-Borne Disease Risk?
Stored household water and shrinking water bodies can create small breeding sites for disease-carrying mosquitoes.
Which Indian Areas Face A Malaria Concern In WHO’s Assessment?
WHO identifies parts of northeast India as facing high or very high malaria risk levels.
What Did Delhi Report For Dengue During August 2026?
Delhi reported 90 dengue cases in August, its highest monthly total during 2026 so far.
How Long Could The Current El Niño Continue?
WMO forecasts a near-100% likelihood that El Niño persists through February 2027 and strengthens further.
