IIT Bombay Associate Professor Karthikeyan Lanka has been selected for the National Academy of Sciences, India (NASI) Young Scientist Award 2026 for his Earth-science research, with agricultural droughts central to his work. The recognition arrives during a monsoon season when India is watching rainfall distribution, crop moisture and water availability closely.
Lanka’s work asks a practical question: how much water stays in the soil after rain, and how long can that moisture support crops? That becomes important when a wet week is followed by a dry spell. IIT Bombay says his group studies soil moisture, land-atmosphere interactions and droughts using satellites and modelling.
Why IIT Bombay Professor Karthikeyan Lanka Won The NASI Award
Lanka works at IIT Bombay’s Centre of Studies in Resources Engineering across remote sensing, hydrology and climate studies. His research covers microwave soil-moisture estimation, drought and heatwave prediction, and land-surface modelling. IIT Bombay announced his NASI selection on August 6, 2026, through its official X account.
The IIT Bombay CSRE research page describes India as a region with strong coupling between soil moisture and precipitation. Water held in the land influences evaporation, runoff, and exchanges between the land surface and atmosphere.
India Today also highlighted the award through its official news account. The Ministry of Earth Sciences research-project database lists Lanka’s sub-seasonal to seasonal agricultural drought prediction project for India, sanctioned in October 2022.
Why Soil-Moisture Tracking Could Change India’s Drought Forecasts
Rainfall totals do not show how much water reaches crop roots. Some rain runs off, some evaporates, and some penetrates deeper layers. Soil, irrigation, vegetation, and earlier weather all change the result.
Better soil-moisture tracking can add four useful layers to drought forecasting:
- Root-zone status: Shows whether crops retain moisture after the surface begins drying.
- Dry-spell detection: Reveals farm stress even when seasonal rainfall totals appear acceptable.
- Runoff clues: Wet soils respond differently to fresh rain than dry soils.
- Forecast calibration: Satellite observations can correct land-surface model estimates across large areas.
The India Science and Technology portal says a 2024–2027 project led by Lanka is developing surface and root-zone soil-moisture information at about 30-metre resolution in the Upper Bhima basin. It combines a land-surface model with satellite-data assimilation and has a sanctioned cost of about ₹78.06 lakh.
What Root-Zone Moisture Adds Beyond Rainfall
Root-zone moisture reacts more slowly than the soil surface. It can show whether crops are carrying moisture from earlier rain or slipping into stress after several dry days.
Recent experimental forecasts by Lanka, reposted by IIT Bombay’s Centre for Climate Studies, track standardised root-zone soil-moisture anomalies down to 100 cm. Negative anomalies show drier-than-normal soil conditions.
That distinction is useful in India because irrigation, crop calendars and soil types can vary sharply across neighbouring fields. A coarse rainfall map may show the same storm over both locations, while their stored moisture can diverge within days. Higher-resolution tracking could therefore help researchers separate short-lived surface drying from deeper agricultural drought and reduce false alarms.
What The Research Could Add To India’s Water Forecasting System
The case for better soil data is stronger in 2026 because rainfall has been uneven. IMD’s July 31 outlook said rainfall during August and August–September was likely to be below normal nationally, at less than 94% of the long-period average. Yet on August 10, IMD warned of isolated extremely heavy rainfall over East Rajasthan and West Madhya Pradesh.
Both signals can exist together. One region may receive heavy rain while another stays dry, and fast rainfall may not recharge deeper soil evenly. Soil moisture can therefore sharpen agricultural drought alerts, irrigation scheduling and basin-level water assessments.
It will not replace rainfall forecasts, river gauges, reservoir data or groundwater monitoring. Instead, it can improve the starting conditions used by hydrological and crop models. Knowing whether a catchment is saturated or unusually dry can change estimates of runoff, crop stress and recharge from the same rainfall forecast.
For India, that could support earlier warnings for rain-fed districts, better irrigation choices and clearer drought categories.
What Farmers And Water Planners Should Watch Next
The bigger test is operational use. Research maps become valuable when agricultural agencies, state drought cells and local planners receive them early enough to act.
Lanka’s work points toward a system where satellite observations, land models, weather forecasts and crop response are read together. Ministry of Earth Sciences-backed projects show this approach is being tested at national and basin scales.
For farmers, the benefit could be an alert that deeper soil is drying before visible crop damage spreads. For watershed managers, better land-moisture estimates can explain why similar rainfall produces different runoff. The NASI recognition therefore highlights a question India will keep facing: not only how much rain falls, but how much usable water remains afterward.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did Karthikeyan Lanka win?
He was selected for NASI’s 2026 Young Scientist Award, recognising his drought and Earth-science research.
How does soil moisture improve drought forecasts?
It shows stored water around crop roots, revealing stress that rainfall totals can sometimes miss.
Why use satellites for soil moisture?
Satellites cover large areas repeatedly, helping researchers compare moisture changes across farms, basins and regions.
What does root-zone soil moisture indicate?
It reflects water available deeper in the soil, giving a stronger picture of crop drought exposure.
Will better soil tracking replace rainfall forecasts?
No, it complements rainfall, temperature, and modelling data to improve agricultural and water planning decisions.
Explore more stories shaping India’s science and water future.
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